In a stunning turnaround, Marin County water supplies that were once at risk of going dry next year have refilled to above-average levels following a series of unusually early downpours.

Marin water officials are reevaluating some drought restrictions and penalties that were adopted earlier this year, especially with more rain in the forecast this week.

The Marin Municipal Water District has recorded about 34 inches of rain since July, which is about 240% of normal by this time of year and about 14 inches more than it received in the entire winter of 2020-2021. The bulk of the rain came from three storms in late October, early November and this month.

As of Friday, about 11 inches of rain had fallen in December, 2 inches more than the district normally receives for the entire month, according to district water quality manager Lucy Croy.

As a result, the district’s seven reservoirs, which serve 191,000 residents, refilled from 32% of capacity to 74% as of Friday. The reservoirs are typically at about 71% of capacity at this time of year.

“I think it’s really just incredible we’re at this point,” Croy said.

At a meeting this week, Ben Horenstein, the district general manager, said the utility is continuing to plan for water projects such as a $100 million pipeline across the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge that would pump in water purchased from Yuba County. The district began planning the pipeline when its forecasts showed it was at risk of depleting its local reservoir supplies as soon as July.

Under this schedule, the board was slated to consider a potential $40 million construction contract for the pipeline in early 2022. Now the district’s water supply is expected to last into 2023, which could change the project timeline.

“We’re closely monitoring precipitation forecasts and how our storage looks and what’s going on in the climate,” Horenstein told the board. “That dictates potentially the level of urgency. Does it decrease and give us a bit more time or not? We are keeping a close eye on that.”

Marin Conservation League board member Roger Roberts urged the board to continue exploring new water supply options.

“The messaging on the street is that MMWD has not planned for long-range supply management and that that’s the major criticism of the board, and I think some of the board members who are up for reelection are going to have to address that question,” Roberts said. “I would sincerely hope that even if we get a super heavy rain this winter that completely fills our reservoirs, you do not do what MMWD did after the last drought in 1976-77 and take long-range planning off the table.”

The National Weather Service is forecasting another 3 inches of rain between Monday and Friday. As a result, the district board is set to hold a discussion on Jan. 4 on whether to relax some of its drought restrictions and penalties.

These rules include the recent implementation of water use allocations that impose fees on residents and businesses that exceed their limits during certain times of the year. The district has banned outdoor irrigation using overhead sprinklers and drip irrigation systems. The district has also mandated a 40% systemwide reduction in water use compared to average use in 2018-2020. So far, residents have only achieved those savings during a handful of weeks since the rule took effect in April.

Relaxing these rules raised concerns among some board members. District projections show that there is still a chance it could end up having one-third of its water supply again by the winter of 2022 if water runoff into reservoirs is similar to that of the past two winters.

“It’s not over,” board member Larry Bragman said the meeting on Tuesday. “So I think we need to reconsider the timing of that until we have more information about our supply capacity, which is still sort of up in the air.”

Board member Monty Schmitt said that while the early rainfall is “wonderful” news given what the district was facing, it also demonstrates the high variability of rainfall that the district could continue to face with climate change.

“To have the driest year followed by the wettest October is exactly a great example of the kind of things that we’re going to need to deal with in the future,” Schmitt said.

The drought has also raised the need to consider controlling how the district’s water is used, specifically with regard to irrigation, board member Larry Russell said. The district is exploring requiring new developments to have a zero net demand on potable water supplies. The restrictions might require developers to pay a fee toward conservation programs, install drought-tolerant landscaping or connect to the recycled water system, if feasible.

The North Marin Water District also saw a supply boost from the recent storms. The district’s Stafford Lake reservoir outside of Novato was 48% full as of the latest data on Thursday, which is slightly higher than the 41% norm for this time of year.

Part of the storage results from the district pumping Russian River water into the lake in anticipation of a third dry winter. Given the recent rainfall and the forecast for next week, the district has stopped importing water for now.

“This is a temporary suspension and is being reevaluated each week,” said Drew McIntyre, the district’s general manager. “Looking beyond this weekend, above-average rainfall is predicted through the end of this month. If this actually occurs, our water storage target of an additional 370 million gallons of storage will be readily obtained by local rainfall so we would not need to continue back feeding.”

The storms also boosted supplies for the Sonoma Water agency, which provides 75% of the North Marin Water District’s supply for Novato and 25% of Marin Municipal Water District supplies. Lake Sonoma was at 52% of capacity as of Friday and Lake Mendocino was at 44% of capacity.

Marin residents should expect a “rainy, wet holiday” this week, said National Weather Service meteorologist Sarah McCorkle.

Rainfall will vary from light showers to heavy rain from Monday through Friday. About 2 to 3 inches is expected to fall in the San Rafael area, with potentially more rain in the coastal mountain ranges, although the forecast could change, McCorkle said.

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